The Morning After
Last night’s Republican win in Massachusetts is, in a word, phenomenal. The New York Times is showing a “before & after” map this morning, illustrating just how Blue the state’s map was just one short year ago, and just how Red that map is today.
Given this sea change in such a short period, politicos will no doubt be sifting through the voter data over the next day or two to tell us what all of this means. In the meantime, here are a few observations from the Street:
• During last year’s Election, Obama won by a whopping 45% in Massachusetts. In 364 days, the state has taken a direct 180 degree turn. What a difference a year makes.
• While this Election was certainly an absolute referendum on the Obama Administration, the Election wasn’t just about Healthcare. Political insiders have told MSNBC’s Norah O’Donnell that the strongest issue in Scott Brown’s internal Campaign polling, was (wait for it…) TERRORISM. Yep, Terrorism. Not Healthcare. Voters were extremely concerned about the Administration’s bungling of the Khalid Sheik Mohammed trial being moved to civilian courts and the Administration’s rush to provide top-notch attorneys to Terrorists who should actually be tried as enemy combatants. Perhaps this can be explained by the fact that TWO of the airplanes used in the 9/11 Terror attacks departed from Boston that day. Whatever the case, the fact that Terror became an issue in this Election is truly significant.
• You’d probably never guess what else this liberal-State Electorate supported in overwhelming numbers: Waterboarding. Yes, you heard correctly. Brown’s own internal polling showed that voters in the Liberal state of Massachusetts overwhelmingly support Waterboarding to gain intelligence from Terrorists. This Electorate included MANY Independents, so we’re not just talking about a bunch of Dick Cheney Republicans here. This is a clear backlash to the Obama Administration’s handling of Terror suspects, and in my view is perhaps the biggest story to come out of the campaign. As a National Security chick, I hope it gets discussed more over the next couple of days.
• Obviously Scott Brown’s victory was a statement against the establishment. But Republicans need to be careful. This means Republicans, in some cases. During his Victory speech, Scott Brown never mentioned – not once – the word “Republican.” By no means should Republicans be dancing in the endzone – yet.
• In fact, Brown mentioned the word “Independent” at least a dozen times, signaling that although he may caucus with the Republican Party, give the Republican response to the State of the State Address next week, and so forth… he may seek to at least project the appearance of a more “independent” candidate.
• In fact, Brown had no strong Party structure behind him. His Victory Party was not organized by the Massachusetts GOP - heck, there is hardly even a Massachusetts GOP! By no means in Brown a “Party guy” in the old sense of the word.
• The same goes for the Tea Party Patriots. According to all reports, there was no real grassroots boots-on-the-ground Tea Party movement for Scott Brown during the campaign, either. Most of the groundwork was performed by Mitt Romney's team, having served there in the Governor's office. There is one exception, and that is the Tea Party Express/Move America Forward PACs, which came in with significant TV buys for Brown in the final few weeks. But as for the true “grassroots” movement that the Tea Party Patriots so proudly boast about, I’m not sure you can call this a “Tea Party victory,” either.
• There’s another interesting theme at work among the three Republicans who have won recently: Scott Brown in Massachusetts; McDonnell in Virginia; and Chris Christie in New Jersey. They ALL ran during Special Elections. This means the Candidates campaigned for shorter periods of time (this means fewer opportunities for mistakes), and that there is an advantage to Republicans running during these pressure-cooker moments (i.e., when the 60th vote on Healthcare hangs in the balance; when Virginia held a Special Election to backfill the Governor’s post; and when Governor Chris Christie was elected in a Special Election in New Jersey). Which all the more proves my favorite Skull & Bones theory: that there is” opportunity in Chaos.” That seems to ring all the more true when it comes to Republicans this Election season. Now, if we can just keep that chaos going…
• All in all, this is a HUGE victory for Republicans. The simple fact that a great many independent and super-Liberal , old-guard Massachusetts voters actually walked into a polling place, crossed over, and checked the box that had an “R” next to it… well, that trumps all. In fact, it is Wicked Awesome if you ask me.
Given this sea change in such a short period, politicos will no doubt be sifting through the voter data over the next day or two to tell us what all of this means. In the meantime, here are a few observations from the Street:
• During last year’s Election, Obama won by a whopping 45% in Massachusetts. In 364 days, the state has taken a direct 180 degree turn. What a difference a year makes.
• While this Election was certainly an absolute referendum on the Obama Administration, the Election wasn’t just about Healthcare. Political insiders have told MSNBC’s Norah O’Donnell that the strongest issue in Scott Brown’s internal Campaign polling, was (wait for it…) TERRORISM. Yep, Terrorism. Not Healthcare. Voters were extremely concerned about the Administration’s bungling of the Khalid Sheik Mohammed trial being moved to civilian courts and the Administration’s rush to provide top-notch attorneys to Terrorists who should actually be tried as enemy combatants. Perhaps this can be explained by the fact that TWO of the airplanes used in the 9/11 Terror attacks departed from Boston that day. Whatever the case, the fact that Terror became an issue in this Election is truly significant.
• You’d probably never guess what else this liberal-State Electorate supported in overwhelming numbers: Waterboarding. Yes, you heard correctly. Brown’s own internal polling showed that voters in the Liberal state of Massachusetts overwhelmingly support Waterboarding to gain intelligence from Terrorists. This Electorate included MANY Independents, so we’re not just talking about a bunch of Dick Cheney Republicans here. This is a clear backlash to the Obama Administration’s handling of Terror suspects, and in my view is perhaps the biggest story to come out of the campaign. As a National Security chick, I hope it gets discussed more over the next couple of days.
• Obviously Scott Brown’s victory was a statement against the establishment. But Republicans need to be careful. This means Republicans, in some cases. During his Victory speech, Scott Brown never mentioned – not once – the word “Republican.” By no means should Republicans be dancing in the endzone – yet.
• In fact, Brown mentioned the word “Independent” at least a dozen times, signaling that although he may caucus with the Republican Party, give the Republican response to the State of the State Address next week, and so forth… he may seek to at least project the appearance of a more “independent” candidate.
• In fact, Brown had no strong Party structure behind him. His Victory Party was not organized by the Massachusetts GOP - heck, there is hardly even a Massachusetts GOP! By no means in Brown a “Party guy” in the old sense of the word.
• The same goes for the Tea Party Patriots. According to all reports, there was no real grassroots boots-on-the-ground Tea Party movement for Scott Brown during the campaign, either. Most of the groundwork was performed by Mitt Romney's team, having served there in the Governor's office. There is one exception, and that is the Tea Party Express/Move America Forward PACs, which came in with significant TV buys for Brown in the final few weeks. But as for the true “grassroots” movement that the Tea Party Patriots so proudly boast about, I’m not sure you can call this a “Tea Party victory,” either.
• There’s another interesting theme at work among the three Republicans who have won recently: Scott Brown in Massachusetts; McDonnell in Virginia; and Chris Christie in New Jersey. They ALL ran during Special Elections. This means the Candidates campaigned for shorter periods of time (this means fewer opportunities for mistakes), and that there is an advantage to Republicans running during these pressure-cooker moments (i.e., when the 60th vote on Healthcare hangs in the balance; when Virginia held a Special Election to backfill the Governor’s post; and when Governor Chris Christie was elected in a Special Election in New Jersey). Which all the more proves my favorite Skull & Bones theory: that there is” opportunity in Chaos.” That seems to ring all the more true when it comes to Republicans this Election season. Now, if we can just keep that chaos going…
• All in all, this is a HUGE victory for Republicans. The simple fact that a great many independent and super-Liberal , old-guard Massachusetts voters actually walked into a polling place, crossed over, and checked the box that had an “R” next to it… well, that trumps all. In fact, it is Wicked Awesome if you ask me.
Excellent observation on the importance of terrorism issue. Glad he mentioned it in his speech. btw, MA has government healthcare, and its unpopular + more expensive for residents.
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